Data Sources: The Oscar Award, 1927-2025 (acquired from Kaggle), Film and Actor Details (acquired from The Movie Database API), Google Trends
Three Most Popular Months for Google Search Interest by Actor Type
Type Month Google Trend Search Interest (mean)
Commercially Successful 1 13.1
Commercially Successful 7 13.1
Commercially Successful 12 12.7
Oscar Nominated 1 12.0
Oscar Nominated 2 11.6
Oscar Nominated 3 11.0
Commercially Successful & Oscar Nominated 1 14.5
Commercially Successful & Oscar Nominated 2 13.4
Commercially Successful & Oscar Nominated 12 13.1

Data Sources: The Oscar Award, 1927-2025 (acquired from Kaggle), Film and Actor Details (acquired from The Movie Database API), Google Trends
Five Most Representative Actors in Each Cluster
1 - Blockbuster Staple 2 - Breakout Star or Memorialized 3 - Critically Acclaimed 4 - Pop Fame 5 - Emerging or Consistent Stardom
Chris Hemsworth Maria Bakalova Felicity Jones Taylor Lautner Gwilym Lee
Nicolas Cage Chadwick Boseman Glen Powell Orlando Bloom Tao Okamoto
Lyna Irrfan Khan Rami Malek Megan Fox George MacKay
Sam Elliott Jean Dujardin Tom Hiddleston Freida Pinto Zazie Beetz
Mads Mikkelsen Carrie Fisher Pedro Pascal Moon Bloodgood Theo James
Data Sources: The Oscar Award, 1927-2025 (acquired from Kaggle), Film and Actor Details (acquired from The Movie Database API), Google Trends
What Percent of Actors in Each Cluster are Oscar Nominees?
Cluster Percent Nominees (%)
1 - Blockbuster Staple 25
2 - Breakout Star or Memorialized 45
3 - Critically Acclaimed 41
4 - Pop Fame 22
5 - Emerging or Consistent Stardom 30
## # A tibble: 2 × 6
##   .metric  .estimator  mean     n std_err .config             
##   <chr>    <chr>      <dbl> <int>   <dbl> <chr>               
## 1 accuracy binary     0.733     5 0.00737 Preprocessor1_Model1
## 2 roc_auc  binary     0.810     5 0.00853 Preprocessor1_Model1
## # A tibble: 2 × 6
##   .metric  .estimator  mean     n std_err .config             
##   <chr>    <chr>      <dbl> <int>   <dbl> <chr>               
## 1 accuracy binary     0.717     5 0.00673 Preprocessor1_Model1
## 2 roc_auc  binary     0.800     5 0.0155  Preprocessor1_Model1
Confusion Matrix Counts by Model
True Label Predicted Label All Predictors TS Predictors Only
0 0 1204 1255
1 0 432 390
0 1 17 23
1 1 49 34
Model Performance Comparison
Metric All Predictors TS Predictors Only
f_meas 0.843 0.859
sens 0.736 0.763
bal_accuracy 0.739 0.680
Who are the Dark Horse Nominees?
All Predictors TS Predictors Only
Ryan Gosling (2006) Matt Dillon (2005)
Edward Norton (2024) Mark Ruffalo (2015)
Johnny Depp (2004) Colin Farrell (2022)
Daniel Kaluuya (2017) Sam Elliott (2018)
Daniel Kaluuya (2020) Robert De Niro (2023)
Who are the Oscar Snubs?
All Predictors TS Predictors Only
Michelle Rodriguez (2005) Emma Thompson (2013)
Hugh Grant (2022) Clint Eastwood (2018)
Mary J. Blige (2009) Julia Roberts (2018)
Harris Dickinson (2023) Annette Bening (2016)
Danny Huston (2021) Kristen Stewart (2020)